Turnout Will Decide Independence Vote

According to a Harris Interactive Poll

Harris Interactive UK

London, UK, 17th September, 2014: A poll conducted yesterday on behalf of the fund management group Crystal Amber by Harris Interactive Europe, powered by Toluna QuickSurveys™, found that the turnout in tomorrow’s referendum will play a key role in Scotland’s future.

The poll found the vote for independence remains incredibly close with 50% reporting that they would vote ‘No,’ 48% reporting they would vote ‘Yes’ and 2% remaining ‘Undecided.’

However turnout could be pivotal in the Yes-No vote. The research also found that if turnout is larger than typical – which is likely to be the case given the gravity of the occasion – results will move in the ‘No’ direction, with 52% reporting their vote intent being ‘No’ and 45% reporting a ‘Yes’ vote.

On 16th September, Harris Interactive Europe conducted surveys with 1,000 non-Scottish UK respondents, as well as a separate survey of 800 Scottish respondents to better understand their sentiments about the impending Scottish vote.

Non-Scottish Britons are well-aware of, yet concerned by the impending Scottish vote. Almost three-quarters (71%) would like Scotland to remain part of the UK. The research showed that:

  • Almost all those questioned (94%) feel that if Scotland does vote to secede there would be impacts felt within the UK
  • A large majority (86%) feel that there are likely to be negative economic consequences felt within the UK as a result of a ‘Yes’ vote
  • More than one in three (36%) of those surveyed felt that they would be personally impacted

The survey illustrated that the recent publicity surrounding the vote has been very effective at gaining nationwide support. Over 7 in 10 (72%) of non-Scottish Britons were aware of David Cameron’s “Better Together” speech and 54% of those that were aware of the speech were made more likely to want Scotland to remain part of the UK.

Though 61% of non-Scottish Britons surveyed do not feel that Scotland will vote to secede at this time, non-Scottish Britons stated they would not support Scotland’s membership in the EU (63%), nor would they feel that Scotland should be allowed to retain the pound sterling (73%) as their form of the national currency if they did vote ‘Yes’.


The survey was conducted on 16th September among 800 adults (16+) in Scotland and 1,000 adults (18+) in the UK excluding Scotland, respectively. Respondents were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Toluna surveys. Figures for age, gender, education, income, employment, and region were weighted to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the online population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

About Crystal Amber
Crystal Amber is the UK’s leading activist fund and is listed on the London Stock Exchange.

About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive Europe (comprising Harris Interactive UK Ltd, Harris Interactive SAS in France, and Harris Interactive AG in Germany) is a full service, consultative custom market research agency. Working internationally from our offices, our activities span both business-to-business and consumer markets: specialising in; automotive; consumer packaged goods; energy; entertainment; financial services; healthcare; media; technology; telecoms; and travel.

About Toluna QuickSurveys
Toluna QuickSurveys is the leading self-serve market research platform, providing direct access to a global panel of over 6 million consumers and delivering high-quality, actionable insights and real-time reporting at a fraction of the cost of other solutions. No other survey tool in the market can match its speed, reliability and cost-effectiveness.


  • Crystal Amber
  • Independence vote
  • Polling
  • Scottish Independence
  • Toluna Quick Survey